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问目吹“精准防疫”“智能防疫”的上海专家两个问题:一、如果有人被感染也才一天,怎么可能测出核酸?(德尔塔变异潜伏期3-5天)你们这么精准地立即将迪斯尼乐园3万多名游客测核酸,除了瞎折腾,有何意义?二、测了3万多人,至少有3百多人会是假阳性,你们用什么神奇方法排除假阳性,才敢宣布结果全部阴性
如果没有假阳性,我们可以假定该测试的特异性100%,即阳性的一定是感染者,那么一定就有假阴性存在,也就是说会漏掉真正的病毒携带者,而这些被测为“阴性”的感染者恰恰是一个筛查低概率事件所不允许的。莫非强国的新冠测试方法是理想化的敏感性和特异性双双100%?我敢肯定抄袭王弄不懂这些。
确实非常奇怪,不仅这一次,在全国其他任何地方的全民核酸检测,也都没有出现过假阳性的报道,大部分情况都是“全部阴性”。他们究竟是怎样消灭假阳性?是否真的有什么办法可以快速排除假阳性?
还有一种可能,就是样本拿回去根本就没有检测,直接宣布全部为阴性,这样钱赚到手,还不用花时间,任务也完成了,还不用负责任(就算之后发现有感染病例也可以说核酸没测出来)
3万人大概会合成3000个标本,这3000个标本里面大概有30个呈现阳性,然后立即测第二次。连续两次假阳性可能不大。现在测核酸经常有人遇到让部分人测第二次的情况
复查是要分开测的,第二次要测300多人,仍然会有几个假阳性。而且从时间看没有测第二次。
迪斯尼乐园有史以来最长的队伍是排队测核酸。那个感染者是在30日去过上海迪斯尼,即使有游客被感染,31日怎么能测出病毒核酸?如果测出阳性,不是假阳性就是别处感染的。难道抄袭王张文宏指导下的上海防疫人员都和他一样不学无术,没有潜伏期概念?
护工
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